NEW YORK (AP)—If Roger Federer is going to reach a seventh consecutive U.S. Open final, he might need to get past the man who ended his Grand Slam semifinal streak.

Five-time U.S. Open champion Federer was given a possible quarterfinal against two-time French Open runner-up Robin Soderling when the draw for this year’s U.S. Open was made Thursday.

The No. 5-seeded Soderling upset Federer in the quarterfinals in Paris this year, stopping Federer’s record run of reaching at least the semifinals at 23 consecutive Grand Slam tournaments.
 
The other men’s matchups in the quarterfinals could be No. 1-seeded Rafael Nadal against No. 8 Fernando Verdasco, two-time major finalist Andy Murray against Wimbledon runner-up Tomas Berdych, and No. 3 Novak Djokovic against No. 6 Nikolay Davydenko or No. 9 Andy Roddick.

The top-seeded woman, 2009 runner-up Caroline Wozniacki, could face 2006 champion Maria Sharapova in the fourth round and 2004 champion Svetlana Kuznetsova in the quarterfinals.

Other possible women’s quarterfinals set up Thursday are defending champion Kim Clijsters against French Open runner-up Sam Stosur, 2000-01 U.S. Open winner Venus Williams against French Open champion Francesca Schiavone, and 2008 U.S. Open finalist Jelena Jankovic against Wimbledon runner-up Vera Zvonareva.

Murray, hoping to become the first British man since 1936 to win a Grand Slam title, could meet No. 20-seeded Sam Querrey of the United States in the fourth round. Another American, Wimbledon marathon man John Isner, is seeded 18th and also is in that quarter of the draw.

In the semifinals, Murray was drawn to meet Nadal, who lost in the last four in New York each of the past two years and is trying to complete a career Grand Slam by winning the U.S. Open for the first time.

Federer was drawn to meet Djokovic or Roddick in the semifinals. Aside from his potential rematch with Soderling, Federer could face another familiar opponent in the third round: 2001 U.S. Open and 2002 Wimbledon champion Lleyton Hewitt. Federer beat Hewitt in the 2004 U.S. Open final, part of a 15-match, head-to-head winning streak for Federer—which ended when Hewitt beat him in the final of a grass-court tournament at Halle, Germany, in June.

Federer lost in the 2009 U.S. Open final to Juan Martin del Potro, who—like No. 1-ranked Serena Williams—previously withdrew from this year’s tournament, having not recovered fully from surgery.

Williams’ older sister, Venus, who is seeded No. 3, could face an intriguing matchup in the third round against No. 32-seeded Tsvetana Pironkova of Bulgaria. Pironkova has won two of her previous three matches against Venus Williams, including a straight-sets upset in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on June 29.

That was the last match Williams played on tour; she sprained her left kneecap in early August, forcing her to withdraw from hard-court tournaments in Cincinnati and Montreal.

The U.S. Open begins Monday, and Williams will have gone more than two months without a match by the time she meets her first-round opponent, Roberta Vinci of Italy, who is 1-7 for her career at Flushing Meadows.

The U.S. Open draws were announced on Thursday. Here are our first impressions of the men’s bracket.

Men: Rafael Nadal gets as favorable a quarter as he’ll ever see at an Open. He gets three seeded Spaniards (David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco) on his side, each of whom aren’t built for the hard courts of New York. David Nalbandian, who started the month at No. 117 but is now No. 31 seed at the Open, lurks on the bottom half of the quadrant and could provide an interesting quarterfinal test for Rafa.

On the other half of Nadal’s side, Andy Murray must be breathing a huge sigh of relief that he doesn’t see Mardy Fish anywhere near him on the bracket. (Fish has defeated Murray three times this year on hard courts.) Not that paths to the semis are ever clear in a Grand Slam, but Murray doesn’t have too many potential roadblocks in his way.

The same can’t be said on the other half of the draw for No. 6 seed Nikolay Davydenko. The Russian could potentially face Richard Gasquet in the second-round and a recharged Andy Roddick in the fourth. If Marcos Baghdatis can still stand after playing 19 matches in the last 30 days, he could see Mardy Fish in a marquee third round tilt. Novak Djokovic rounds out the quarter.

Roger Federer‘s rout to the semifinals could go through Lleyton Hewitt (third round), Jurgen Melzer (fourth round) and Robin Soderling (quarterfinal). It would be the first Grand Slam semifinal for Federer since the Australian Open.

Best first-round match: Tomas Berdych (7) v. Michael Llodra

Best potential second-round match: Nikolay Davydenko (6) v. Richard Gasquet

Most likely to be upset: Berdych

Best potential quarterfinal: Roger Federer (2) v. Robin Soderling (5)

Semifinal predictions: Rafael Nadal v. Andy Murray; Andy Roddick v. Roger Federer

Finals prediction: Federer over Murray

NEW YORK (AP)—Seeking to complete the career Grand Slam, Rafael Nadal will be the top-seeded man when the U.S. Open starts next week, while Roger Federer will come to Flushing Meadows seeded second.

Nadal, who won the French Open and Wimbledon this year, is seeded first at the U.S. Open for the second time in three years. He has never made it past the semifinals.

The women’s seedings have been delayed one day because of a rainout of Sunday’s final at the Rogers Cup in Montreal. On Monday, world No. 2 Caroline Wozniacki defeated Vera Zvonareva to win that tournament. It appears Wozniacki, who lost to Kim Clijsters in last year’s final, will get the top seed at the U.S. Open because Serena Williams, the world’s top-ranked player, has withdrawn while recovering from surgery to repair cuts on her right foot.

Also missing from New York will be defending men’s champion Juan Martin del Potro, who remains sidelined with a lingering wrist injury. Del Potro defeated Federer in last year’s final, ending his string of five straight U.S. Open titles. Federer, who won the Australian Open this year, is seeking his 17th Grand Slam tournament title.

Del Potro, meanwhile, is only the third U.S. Open men’s champion in the 42-year Open era who won’t be on hand to defend his title.

Seeded third for the men is Novak Djokovic, followed by Andy Murray at No. 4. Robin Soderling, Nikolay Davydenko, Tomas Berdych and Fernando Verdasco round out the top eight.

At No. 9, Andy Roddick is the highest seeded American man. With a trip to the semifinals in Cincinnati last weekend, Roddick jumped back into the world’s top 10. Earlier this month, Roddick fell to No. 12 and it marked the first time since the rankings began in 1973 that no American man was in the top 10.

The draws for the tournament come out Thursday.

With a 6-4, 6-3 win over Marcos Baghdatis in the semifinals of Cincinnati, Roger Federer will keep the No. 2 ranking and be seeded second for the U.S. Open.

That means he and No. 1 Rafael Nadal will be guaranteed not to meet before the U.S. Open final. After Novak Djokovic’s quarterfinal loss, Federer had to reach the final to remain No. 2.

Okay, I get it. 2500-plus comments at that last post, and Typepad staggering beneath the load like a pack animal loaded down with ore, tells me y’all are hungry for tennis and getting thoroughly jacked up for the U.S. Open. And I’m not even back from vacation yet. . .

Reviewing the news, how about Serena Williams pulling out of he U.S. Open, Vera Zvonareva regrouping, Marcos  Baghdatis re-connecting with his mojo and Roger Federer tiptoeing over dead bodies to avoid actually having to break a sweat during a typically sweltering U.S. and southern Canadian summer?  I get the feeling that we’re heading into uncharted territory come the final Grand Slam of the year in New York.

And what do you make of Novak Djokovic flaming out in Cincy (or is it merely “flaring,” which is Djokovic’s slightly disconcerting MO recently)?

Or Andy Murray having so much trouble with the heat?

Granted, it’s hot. But it’s usually hot during the endless tennis summer. And eight matches played in 10 days under the brutal, unforgiving summer sun surely is an assignment worthy of combat pay. But the way Murray described his travails of the past few days gives me pause. He’s had a good run (I wrote a post for ESPN on this subject the other day, in which I focused on the threat he represents) but now I have to wonder. It seems like Murray has a built-in excuse should he falter in New York. Will he expects less of himself than he ought?

Roger Federer is now poised to win in Cincinnati; whether he does or not is a harbinger for the U.S. Open, simply because the deck has been so well stacked in his favor at the Western and Southern Financial Group Masters. Back-to-back wins over Baghdatis and either Mardy Fish or Andy Roddick, which is what it will take for Federer to win the title in Cincinnati, may no merit even a line-item in his Hall-of-Fame resume. He’s played a grand total of just seven games enroute to yesterday’s quarterfinals (a stat that must make Murray wince with envy), in which he swarmed all over Nikolay Davydenko. So if he fails to close the deal in Cincy this weekend, you’ll be entitled to ask, What more could a guy ask for, in the way of greased skids?

A final and semi, which is the worst Federer could achieve in these back-to-back Masters 1000 events (Federer lost to Murray last weekend in Toronto), is by no means a poor showing. Not for anyone not named Federer. But the bottom line is that Cincinnati is Federer’s tournament to lose. If he wins on Sunday, he’s in control going into the U.S. Open. If he loses, all bets are off. It’s as simple as that, although only an idiot would write Federer off in the last major, no matter what happens tomorrow, or Sunday.

With a win in Cincy, Federer will roll in to New York much as he has for the past five years – as the man to beat. I think Federer knows this, which makes the events of the next two days most interesting. How will he respond to the pressure?

And here’s something else: Is Federer backtracking, to the point where he has some deep, unconscious urge to slough off the stress that a champion carries? Great players sometimes need to gently lower the bar of expectations, give themselves some breathing room  as their lung capacity diminishes. They attain it by performing below their usual standard, and subsequently rely on inspiration, determination and the immutable given – talent – to reverse course and confound their critics. That’s why, all punditry aside, you can’t ever write off a proven winner, no matter how desperate the straits.

How all this plays out tells you something about a player’s natural arc of career. At his peak, a dominant player is in control; beyond his peak, he’s at the whim of fate, angling against increasingly poor odds for the chance to produce the hero moment. Jimmy Connors showed us how all that works, and Bjorn Borg denied us the pleasure of watching the process play out because he retired while at or near his peak. Federer is more Connors than  Borg (who woulda thunk it?), but that’s a subject best left for another day. . .

Enjoy the Cincy and Montreal semifinals, everyone.

– Pete

MASON, OHIO (AP)—Spraying balls all over the place, an erratic Rafael Nadal was upset by unseeded Marcos Baghdatis 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati Masters on Friday night.

The top-ranked and top-seeded Nadal committed 30 unforced errors in the first two sets and double-faulted on break point in the ninth game of the third set, allowing the 20th-ranked Cypriot to serve for the match. He clinched his first win in seven matches against Nadal when the Spaniard fired a forehand into the net for his 35th unforced error of the match.

“Basically, I took chances,” he said of finally beating Nadal. “Other times, I had chances and didn’t take them.”

Baghdatis, who finished with 18 aces to Nadal’s four and committed only 22 unforced errors, considered his serves more crucial than Nadal’s miscues.

“I served pretty big tonight,” Baghdatis said. “It was much better. I was more aggressive. I knew Rafa wasn’t going to give me the match, so I had to go and take it.”

Nadal blamed most of his problems on a balky backhand.

“My game can improve, that’s for sure,” he said. “I have to keep working to improve my confidence with the backhand. My feeling with the forehand is good, but I still had too many unforced errors. For a lot of reasons, I played badly at important moments.”

Earlier Friday, fourth-seeded Andy Murray, playing his eighth afternoon match in 10 days, lost to unseeded Mardy Fish 6-7 (7), 6-1, 7-6 (5) in a match that lasted 2 hours, 56 minutes – the tournament’s longest – on a court where the temperature reached an even 100 degrees.

Fish will meet Andy Roddick in the tournament’s first all-American semifinal since Roddick lost 7-5, 6-7 (2), 7-6 (2) to Andre Agassi in 2004. The ninth-seeded Roddick eliminated No. 2 Novak Djokovic 6-4, 7-5 on Friday.

Defending champion Roger Federer finally played a full match at the $2.4 million Western & Southern Financial Group Masters, knocking off sixth-seeded Nikolay Davydenko 6-4, 7-5. The third-seeded Federer, a three-time champion, played just seven games in his first match before Denis Istomin retired with an ankle injury. His next opponent, Philipp Kohlschreiber, withdrew with a shoulder injury before their round-of-16 match.

The 23-year-old Murray was exhausted but the Scot had enough left in the tank to force two tiebreakers, but not enough to finish the job.

“In the third set, I wasn’t really using my legs at all on my serve,” said Murray, who needed cooling treatment, including rubdowns on both legs, during many changeovers. “It was all arm. Every time there was a long point, I felt tired for two or three points afterward. When you get to the end of the match, you just try to finish as best you can.”

Murray asked tournament officials after his match on Thursday if he could play Friday’s night match. He even volunteered to play on a secondary court. Instead, he and Fish were scheduled to play the first match.

“They said that, because Fish had to play doubles, they wanted us to play early, but I’m not sure that’s the way tennis works,” Murray said. “I don’t think matches should be scheduled around the doubles, because it’s the singles that’s on the TV.”

Fish had little sympathy for Murray, suggesting that those circumstances usually even out.

“I usually like to play the first-up match, because you know exactly when you’re going on,” he said. “I’m sure there have been times when [Murray] was playing the night match and would like to be done and go to dinner. I can understand where he’s coming from, but what can you do? It was bad luck for him today.

“Physically, it was hot, but nowhere near the humidity of, say, D.C. or Atlanta. It was every bit as hot as there. It feels great to win a match like that.”

Murray admitted that he considered retiring from the match.

“It does cross your mind a little bit when you’re struggling like that, but the doctor and the physio did a good job with the ice and cooling me down a little bit,” he said.

Murray took a 4-2 lead in the second tiebreaker. Fish, a 2003 finalist, then won four straight points, the last when Murray sent a forehand passing shot wide and followed it by slamming a ball out of the stadium in frustration.

The 36th-ranked Fish clinched the upset – his third consecutive win over Murray, all this year – when the Scot smacked a forehand into the net. The American is the first unseeded player to reach the Cincinnati semifinals since Lleyton Hewitt in 2007 and the lowest-ranked player to get there since No. 58 Robby Ginepri in 2005.

“It could easily be 1-2,” said Fish, now 4-3 in his career against Murray. “I’ve won two tiebreakers in the third [set]. I’ve had a lot of trouble with him. He serves so well and returns so well that he usually gives aggressive players like me a lot of trouble.”

Fish, playing more aggressively than Murray, finished with 14 aces, 50 winners and 34 unforced errors. Murray had eight aces, 30 winners and 24 unforced errors.

Djokovic also was aggressive, hitting 28 winners to Roddick’s 15, but the Serb also committed 29 unforced errors to Roddick’s 15 while losing for the fourth straight time in their head-to-head meetings.

“I just played a very bad match,” Djokovic said. “Every time I needed to play well, I made mistakes, especially on my forehand side. He was getting a lot of balls back – not doing anything special, just making me play extra shots.”

The 13th-ranked American couldn’t argue.

“Novak probably didn’t play his best match,” Roddick said. “He was missing balls he normally wouldn’t miss. I probably would expect him to play a little better.”

Federer squandered two match points in the 10th game of the second set and another in the 12th before moving into the semifinals. He was happy to finally have gotten on to the court.

“It was a bit scary,” he said. “You’re wondering, ‘Do I have enough play on these courts?’ It was sort of a relief. That was a tough match for me, but I felt like I played really good, especially since I hadn’t played. I tried to play offensively and mix it up—make it hard for him to get some rhythm.”

MASON, Ohio (AP)—Unseeded Mardy Fish survived triple-digit temperatures and two tiebreakers to edge fourth-seeded Andy Murray and move into the Cincinnati Masters semifinals with a grueling 6-7 (7), 6-1, 7-6 (5) win Friday.

Fish clinched the upset when Murray smacked a forehand into the net. The American became the first unseeded player to reach the Cincinnati semifinals since Lleyton Hewitt in 2007.

Murray needed frequent rubdowns on both legs during changeovers, but took a 4-2 lead in the second tiebreaker. Fish then won four straight points, the last when Murray sent a forehand passing shot wide and then slammed a ball out of the stadium in frustration.

Fish will play ninth-seeded Andy Roddick, who defeated Novak Djokovic 6-4, 7-5, in the semifinals.

Novak Djokovic is through to the Cincinnati quarterfinals after defeating David Nalbandian 6-1, 7-6(7). Nalbandian, who was up a break in the second set, double faulted on the final point of the match.

MASON, Ohio (AP)—Top-ranked Rafael Nadal needed three sets in the afternoon heat—plus a little help at the end—to avoid a huge upset. And he wasn’t alone in the midday distress.

Nadal and No. 4 Andy Murray were pushed to their limits Thursday before moving on to the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati Masters. Both got some help with their matches on the line.

Nadal survived a set point in the second-set tiebreaker, then surged to a 5-7, 7-6 (6), 6-2 victory over France’s Julien Benneteau, who developed leg cramps in the final set and wasn’t the same. A worn-out Murray took advantage of Ernests Gulbis’ erratic shots—especially in the tiebreaker—for a 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (4) victory.

“The heat here is important,” Nadal said. “It’s not easy to play here.”

Andy Roddick couldn’t blame the heat for his full-length match. The top-ranked American played in the evening and wasted five match points—one of them during a second-set tiebreaker—before closing out a 6-4, 6-7 (7), 7-6 (5) win over No. 5 Robin Soderling.

“What’s the difference between winning by two points in a tiebreaker and losing by two points?” the Roddick said. “A little bit of good play and luck also.”

The other top players had an easier time.

No one has played less this week than second-ranked Roger Federer, who reached the quarterfinals when Germany’s Philipp Kohlschreiber withdrew because of a painful right shoulder. It was the second straight match that Federer’s opponent got hurt. He’s been on court for a total of 28 minutes this week.

Third-ranked Novak Djokovic advanced by beating David Nalbandian 6-1, 7-6 (7).

Stunningly, Nadal came within one point of an early elimination. Benneteau served consecutive aces to go up 6-5 in the second-set tiebreaker, but hit a return long. Nadal then ran around a shot and nailed a forehand into the corner, grabbing the momentum. He jumped and punched at the air when Benneteau hit a shot wide to end it.

“He had two aces and after that, I played very good,” Nadal said. “My game was on and off. My forehand worked very well—for moments.”

During the break, Nadal got a blister pad applied to the bottom of his right foot. Benneteau got his legs rubbed for cramping. Nadal was much better off, breaking Benneteau twice to pull ahead 3-0 in the final set. Nadal pumped his fist at the end of the 2-hour, 48-minute match.

Murray was exhausted after his comeback, moving on with more stagger than swagger.

The 23-year-old Scot won his second straight Rogers Cup championship in Toronto on Sunday, beating Federer to defend his title. Fatigue has caught up with him in Cincinnati.

Murray wore down during his match against the 21-year-old Gulbis, who was the youngest player left in the field. He repeatedly bent over and tried to catch his breath after long rallies in the 85-degree heat.

“The conditions are tough here,” Murray said. “I’ve played seven matches in nine days, and every one was between noon and 3 o’clock, when it’s warmest. I think anybody would be feeling (tired) in my position.”

Murray got his serve broken to open the match and was soon talking to himself and swatting balls away in frustration. He evened the match after two sets by taking advantage of the Latvian’s frequent mistakes—42 unforced errors overall.

Gulbis’ worst moments came in the third-set tiebreaker. He hit a backhand into the net, sailed a forehand, then plopped a forehand into the net, giving Murray a 3-0 lead. When Gulbis sailed another forehand, Murray was up 6-1 and in position to close out the 2-hour, 33-minute match.

Murray asked to play a night match in the quarterfinals on Friday, giving him a break from the heat and more time to recover. The doubles scheduled prevented it, so Murray will play in the afternoon again.

The 13th-ranked Roddick had 12 break points—five of them during one game of the third set—but converted only two of them. He blew three match points in the final game of the third set, sending it to a tiebreaker that ended with Soderling’s long forehand.

Match time: 2 hours, 44 minutes.

Federer has had the easiest time this week. He played only 28 minutes in his opening match before qualifier Denis Istomin had to quit because of an injured right foot on Wednesday night. Federer didn’t even leave the locker room on Thursday—Kohlschreiber’s shoulder hurt so bad during a morning practice that he scheduled an MRI.