Is It Sunday Yet?
If there are no upsets at a tennis tournament, there’s no story, right? The top two seeds advancing solemnly and efficiently toward the final is too predictable to be noteworthy. Not so with this U.S. Open so far: What’s set the tournament apart on the men’s side has been the otherworldly quality of both of those top seeds, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. They’ve been handing the beatdown baton back and forth to each other every evening in Ashe Stadium. Last night it was Nadal’s turn. He took the stick and ran all over the court, as well as a helpless and poorly coiffed Fernando Verdasco, with it. Nadal played with a sense of purpose rare even for him.
The other news is that the Open is the only Slam where Federer and Nadal have never played. New York wants a piece of this generation’s great rivalry before it’s too late, and we’re never going to have a better shot at it. We’ve seen Ali and Frazier. We’ve seen Borg and McEnroe. Even Godzilla traveled to Manhattan for a showdown with King Kong. Are we finally going to get Nadal and Federer?
Nadal vs. Mikhail Youzhny
The head to head is 7-4 in Nadal’s favor, though the last time they played on a hard court, in Chennai a couple of years ago, Youzhny won love and 1. While Nadal was coming off an epic match with Carlos Moya the day before, there’s no question that Youzhny has troubled him at times in the past. He even eliminated Nadal in the quarters at Flushing Meadows four years ago and was up two sets on him at Wimbledon the following year, before Nadal completely turned the tables. Since then, Nadal has mostly had the upper hand.
Last night Nadal said that Youzhny’s shots are difficult because they’re so flat, and that they work well on this court, where the ball picks up speed more than it does on some of the other hard courts on tour. Youzhny is also adept at taking his backhand down the line, which is a huge help against Nadal’s lefty serve and forehand.
If you go by Nadal’s form so far, none of that will matter. He’s been playing too well, with too much self-assurance, aggression, speed, and determination, for Youzhny to take even a set. Plus, Youzhny is coming off a a very draining five-setter against Wawrinka. Nadal wasn’t serving quite as hard last night, but he’s only been broken once in the tournament. Most impressive to me has been his ability to hit offensive shots, mostly forehands, from positions, like well back in his backhand corner, that would normally be defensive, for him or anyone else. Nadal has been less patient than ever with the grind of the rally. According to him, that approach will continue. To combat Youzhny’s flat strokes, he says he can’t cede much territory to him. That should be music to the ears of Nadal fans, because that’s always been his attitude at Wimbledon.
One caveat, because there always must be a caveat. Recent form is a good predictor of future form—except when it isn’t. I watched Nadal play two of the very best matches I’ve ever seen—one against Youzhny—in Rome three years ago, and then come out utterly flat against Davydenko in the semis. The shots that penetrated were now floating. Offense had given way to defense, dictating to defending. It can happen, even tomorrow. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Winner: Nadal
***
Federer vs. Novak Djokovic
On paper, this should be the trickier semi, but I don’t see it. Djokovic has lost to Federer the last three years at the Open, and in 2009 he caved mentally. Federer’s between the legs winner near the end just confirmed Djokovic’s thinking at the moment—the guy is too good.
That shouldn’t necessarily be true. Djokovic came back to beat Federer on his home court in Basel later in the year. And the Serb has been winning almost as efficiently here as Nadal and Federer. But he also hasn’t faced the world’s most tenacious competition. In the fourth round he got Mardy Fish, who conveniently forgot he was a New Player. In the quarters, he got Gael Monfils, who conveniently forgot that he was a tennis player at all.
Federer, on the other hand, has been his old regal self, making No. 5 seed Robin Soderling look like the flat-footed Sod of yore—like, 2008. Federer has at times appeared to be moving more quickly than ever. Or maybe he’s just moving more aggressively. Like Nadal, defense has been offense for him, there’s been little sign of the erratic, shank-ridden stretches that have cost him this season, and his consistency with his serve in the wind has been astounding—judging by his comments after his quarter, Federer thinks the wind works in his favor, because of his uncomplicated service motion. You might even say that the wind has actually helped him, the same way it’s helped Nadal. Both guys mentioned that playing in it requires you to be especially vigilant with footwork, with making tiny adjustment steps as the swerves toward you. It’s made them both a little sharper. Too sharp for anyone else.
Rog and Rafa haven’t lost a set. I’m guessing they won’t lose one on Saturday, either. This should be it. These guys deserve each other.
Winner: Federer
Related posts:
- Nadal defeats Verdasco in U.S. Open quarterfinals
- U.S. Open men’s semis preview: Waiting for Federer-Nadal
- The Future is Not Now
- Youzhny beats Wawrinka in five sets to reach semis
- Nadal beats Youzhny, reaches first U.S. Open final
